DONALD TRUMP promises to deliver 25m jobs over the next decade, 18m more than is forecast today. In our print edition, we have consistently argued that this is infeasible, because America is ageing rapidly:
Arithmetic suggests this pledge is fanciful: even if the labour-force participation of 25- to 54-year-olds returns to its record high, only 4.3m new workers will appear by 2024.
But at Free Lunch, a blog at the Financial Times, the excellent Martin Sandbu disagrees:
The US is seriously underperforming relative to its own record on employment. The employment-to-population ratio for 25 to 54-year-olds (which should not be affected by ageing or college attendance) is 78.1 per cent, almost four points below the record set in the last year of the Bill Clinton presidency. The ratio for 16 to 24-year-olds is 10 points down. Restoring those ratios should add about 8m-9m jobs or 6 per cent of the…Continue reading